Epidemic Models and Estimation of the Spread of SARS-CoV-2: Case Study Portoviejo-Ecuador

The mathematical models can help to characterize, quantify, summarize, and determine the severity of the outbreak of the Coronavirus, the estimation of the dynamics of the pandemic helps to identify the type of measures and interventions that can be taken to minimize the impact by classified information. In this work, we propose four epidemiological models to study the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Specifically, two versions of the SIR model (Susceptible, Infectious, and Recovered) are considered, the classical Crank-Nicolson method is used with a stochastic version of the Beta-Dirichlet state-space models. Subsequently, the SEIR model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered) is fitted, the Euler method and a stochastic version of the Beta-Dirichlet state-space model are used. In the results of this study (Portoviejo-Ecuador), the SIR model with the Beta-Dirichlet state-space form determines the maximum point of infection in less time than the SIR model with the Crank-Nicolson method. Furthermore, the maximum point of infection is shown by the SEIR model, that is reached during the first two weeks where the virus begins to spread, more efficient is shown by this model. To measure the quality of the estimation of the algorithms, we use three measures of goodness of fit. The estimated errors are negligible for the analyzed data. Finally, the evolution of the spread is predicted, that can be helpful to prevent the capacity of the country’s health system. © 2022, Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

Islamic Banking Transaction and Social Based Crowdfunding During Pandemic: Shariah Analysis on Islamic Financial and Non-Financial Institutions Approaches

This paper is based on an ongoing study titled "Social Based-Crowd Funding in Battling Covid-19 and Maqasid Shariah: Some Legal and Shariah Observations in Malaysia and Indonesia." The COVID-19 pandemic has been one of the most serious health crises since the turn of the century. The corona pandemic has presented Islamic banks with significant challenges in dealing with this pandemic, taking into account, on the one hand, its impact on various economic sectors and regulatory authorities' decisions. However, it appears that Islamic financial institutions are at odds over how to handle Islamic banking transactions, particularly a moratorium between the bank and their clients during the pandemic, as well as the use of social-based crowdfunding activities. This investigation begins with a historical pandemic that afflicted the entire world. The purpose of this paper is to examine the position of Islamic banking transactions and social-based crowdfunding during the pandemic from a Shariah standpoint. This paper also highlights Malaysia's Islamic banking approach to social based financing and social based crowd funding by financial and non-financial institutions during the pandemic. The qualitative research method was used in this paper, which included a library-based research method. A descriptive content analysis method will be used to analyse the data. This paper is significant in that it will add to the body of knowledge and literature on the subject while also providing Shariah's perspective on the status of Shariah's commercial and socially based crowdfunding contracts. The principles of adl and Ihsan appear to have been applied, affecting Islamic banking commercial transactions and social-based crowdfunding contracts. During a pandemic, however, there is a need to strike a balance between the financial stability of the financial institution and the needs of society as a whole. As a result, Shariah parameters must be developed in such a way that financial institutions understand how Islamic commercial transactions and socially based crowdfunding should be treated, particularly during a pandemic. © 2021, CA and C Press AB. All rights reserved.